TOP TEN STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES FOR 2020
from Battelle Memorial Institute
Technology experts at Battelle think they have 2020 vision.
They don't mean perfect eyesight today. They're talking about
the ability to see the world of 2020.
And what do the Battelle experts see?
They see a world of microscopic, cancer-eating machines,
cloned human organs, designer foods, and computers
everywhere-maybe even embedded in your clothes and under your
skin.
"The 20th century was the time of big technologies, mass
production, mass wars, and mass politics," says Stephen
Millett, thought leader and manager of Battelle's technology
forecasts. "But in the years ahead, new technologies will
become much more personalized, and they will closely affect
almost every aspect of our lives." Millett adds, "We
see advances in information and biological technologies bringing
us into a more intimate relationship with nature and with each
other. From cloned human organs, to personalized public
transportation, to computers and sensors embedded in our bodies,
we will become intertwined with technology."
The 2020 technology forecast follows a series of 10-year
forecasts Battelle initiated in 1995. "Those lists are
turning out to be quite prophetic, and maybe even a little
tame," says Will Kopp, a futurist with Corporate
Communications, of the forecasts that predicted technologies
such as multi-fuel automobiles and flat-screen, high-definition
television.
"With the dawning of a new millennium, it's valuable to
look ahead a little further and identify powerful technology
trends."
Battelle's list of the Top Ten strategic technologies for 2020:
1. Genetic-based Medical and Health Care
2. High-power energy packages
3. GrinTech (Green Integrated Technology)
4. Omnipresent Computing
5. Nanomachines
6. Personalized Public Transportation
7. Designer Foods and Crops
8. Intelligent Goods and Appliances
9. Worldwide Inexpensive and Safe Water
10. Super Senses
1. GENETIC-BASED MEDICAL AND HEALTH CARE. Over the
next 20 years, we will witness an explosion of medical
technology originating from genetic research, giving us the
ability to detect and correct many genetic-based diseases before
they arise-possibly even in the womb.
A wide range of new pharmaceuticals that originated from genetic
research will come onto the market in the next 20 years, leading
to treatments, cures, and preventive measures for a host of
ailments. They may range from treatments for life-threatening
diseases to psychological disorders to cosmetic problems.
Most incredible, some of these treatments will be personalized
to meet the unique needs of an individual's genetic makeup.
"Your doctor might have a record of your genetic
makeup," says Eric Majewski of Medical Products, "and
he or she might be able to prescribe medications, diets, or
other treatments to fit your own particular needs.
It will really be the ultimate in individualized care."
Battelle forecasters say genetic research also will lead to
cloned human organs within 20 years. These organs will be grown
and used in transplants.
2. HIGH-POWER ENERGY PACKAGES. Developments such as
highly advanced batteries, inexpensive fuel cells, and
micro-generators of electricity will make many of our electronic
products and appliances highly mobile. Decentralized power
sources will be extensive, affordable, and environmentally
clean.
These new, high-power, distributed energy systems will provide
backup if not primary energy sources for appliances, homes, and
vehicles. In the transition to fuel cells, we will see further
improvements in batteries-perhaps linked with solar power and
small generators fueled by natural gas.
3. GRINTECH (GREEN INTEGRATED TECHNOLOGY). Global
crowding, fears of global climate change, and mountains of
garbage will thrust environmental concerns to the forefront of
consumers and industry around the world. Technology will provide
the answers, with new systems that eliminate rather than reduce
waste.
"The integration of a variety of technologies is the key
here," says Gerry Stokes, Associate Director of the Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory. "We'll be using advanced
sensors, new materials, computer systems, energy systems, and
manufacturing technologies to eliminate waste and make our
products completely recyclable." GrinTech will be
especially important in agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and
transportation systems.
4. OMNIPRESENT COMPUTING. Computers will be
everywhere. We will be in constant contact with very miniature,
wireless, highly mobile, powerful, and highly personalized
computing with network access. Such computers may first appear
on the market as watches or jewelry with the power of a computer
and cellular phone. Later, we will have computers embedded in
our clothing and possibly implanted under our skin.
5. NANOMACHINES. Microscopic machines, measured in
atoms rather than millimeters, will revolutionize several
industries and may perform a wide range of jobs for us-from
heating our homes to curing cancer.
Battelle researchers see the medical industry as the most
important area for nanomachine technology by 2020. "We may
be able to develop nanomachines that will go into your body and
find and destroy individual cancer cells while not harming
healthy cells," says Battelle Senior Research Scientist
Kevin Priddy. Nanomachines also could be used to deliver drugs
to highly localized places in the body, to clean arteries, and
to repair the heart, brain, and other organs without surgery.
6. PERSONALIZED PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. The continuing
growth of cities will further stress our transportation
infrastructure. Yet, Battelle researchers say an aging
population with concerns about safety, convenience, and
independence will help maintain a high demand for personal
vehicles. The challenge is to integrate many individual cars
within a coordinated and optimized public transportation
network. "Realistically, public transportation systems like
trains and subways are the most efficient way to move people
around in a dense urban setting," says Millett. "But
many of us don't want to give up our cars. So, technology will
help us turn our cars into what will almost be personalized
public transportation."
New information technology in your car will work with a central
traffic control system to guide you through the quickest route
to your destination. Traffic jams and road rage will decline
substantially as people drive their cars to remote parking areas
and take highly advanced-and comfortable-trains into central
cities and between cities.
7. DESIGNER FOODS AND CROPS. Grocery store shelves
will be filled with genetically engineered foods that are
environmentally friendly and highly nutritious. Through genetic
engineering, researchers will develop crops that resist diseases
and pests, greatly reducing the need for pesticides and other
chemicals. Battelle predicts that most food sold in supermarkets
will come from genetically engineered fruits, vegetables, and
livestock. Nearly all cotton and wool for our clothing will be
genetically engineered.
Even lawns could be genetically engineered to need less
fertilizer and pesticide and-best yet-grow more slowly.
8. INTELLIGENT GOODS AND APPLIANCES. Advances in
quantum computing will lead to smaller, more powerful computers
and electronics that will add amazing intelligence to appliances
and other products. These products will likely include
telephones with extensive phone directories, intelligent food
packaging that tells your oven how to cook the food inside,
refrigerators that help make out your shopping list and tell you
where to get the best price on the food you need, and maybe even
a toaster that won't burn your toast.
9. WORLDWIDE INEXPENSIVE AND SAFE WATER. Within the
next 20 years, clean drinking water could become an expensive
commodity around the world. However, before water shortages
become critical, technology will answer the challenge, with
advanced filtering, processing, and delivery of potable water.
Desalination of water and water extraction from the air are two
possibilities.
"Our most important technological challenge of the next two
decades may be developing new ways to make clean water plentiful
and inexpensive around the world," Kopp says.
10. SUPER SENSES. One of the hot technologies today is
virtual reality.
In 20 years, though, we will be marveling over "enhanced
reality." Using sensors and electronic or genetic
technology, we will be able to implant devices that will allow
us to hear better than ever before or see farther or in the
dark. Gerry Stokes says the technology will first be used to
enhance hearing. "Baby boomers have lived in a very noisy
world-with rock music, airplanes, construction equipment, lawn
mowers, and other assaults to their hearing. And as they age,
we'll see a rash of hearing problems," Stokes says.
"We'll be able to repair that damage, but why stop there?
Why not make their hearing better than it's ever been?"
Battelle, headquartered in Columbus,
Ohio, focuses on technology development and commercialization
and product development. With 7,500 employees at more than 60
locations, Battelle develops technologies and products for
industry and government. Annual revenues are approximately $1
billion. For more information on Battelle and its technology
forecasts, visit Battelle's web site at http://www.battelle.org
,
or contact Stephen Millett at (614)424-5335 or Katy Delaney,
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